Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Newroz the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Al Minaa Basra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Newroz (1,528) and Al Minaa Basra (1,475).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newroz have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Al Minaa Basra have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gharraf(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Naft(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 24, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-2 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Newroz win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Al Minaa Basra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | Newroz 1-0 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Al Minaa Basra 1-5 Newroz | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra on Apr 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Newroz score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Al Minaa Basra score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newroz | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Al Minaa Basra | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newroz sit 16th in Iraqi League (1 points from 2 matches) and Al Minaa Basra sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Minaa Basra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | Newroz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
- The Footlab model makes Newroz the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Al Minaa Basra.
- Where and when is Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra played?
- Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra is played on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.