Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
The Footlab model makes Erzurumspor FK the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Kocaelispor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Erzurumspor FK (1,952) and Kocaelispor (1,874).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzurumspor FK have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Kocaelispor have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Amed(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Başakşehir(away) | 0-2 | Süper Lig |
| May 17, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(home) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 3, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Erzurumspor FK win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Kocaelispor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | Kocaelispor 3-1 Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Kocaelispor 1-0 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Erzurumspor FK 0-0 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Kocaelispor 1-1 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK on Dec 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kocaelispor score 0.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Kocaelispor | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erzurumspor FK sit 18th in Süper Lig (0 points from 2 matches) and Kocaelispor sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kocaelispor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor?
- The Footlab model makes Erzurumspor FK the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Kocaelispor.
- Where and when is Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor played?
- Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor is played on December 6, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.