Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab AI model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Başakşehir. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fenerbahçe wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (2,179 vs 1,986).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Başakşehir
4-2-3-1- 17U. Bozok
- 14E. Shomurodov
- 8O. Kemen
- 70A. Skov Olsen
- 77I. Brnić
- 18J. Kałuziński
- 23E. Bayram
- 27O. Ba
- 33M. Karbownik
- 38S. Kharebashvili
- 16M. Şengezer
Fenerbahçe
4-2-3-1- 9R. Lukaku
- 11M. Greenwood
- 6M. Guendouzi
- 91N. Kanté
- 17İ. Kahveci
- 70O. Aydın
- 37M. Škriniar
- 15N. Aké
- 27Nélson Semedo
- 3A. Brown
- 31Ederson
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 12:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Başakşehir have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Fenerbahçe have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Gaziantep FK(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Konyaspor(away) | 0-0 | Süper Lig |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 4-0 | Süper Lig |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-5 | Süper Lig |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 2-3 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 3-0 | Süper Lig |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 0-6 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 3-0 | Süper Lig |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Turan(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Eyüpspor(home) | 8-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Başakşehir wins, 1 draw, 5 Fenerbahçe wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Başakşehir 1-1 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2025 | Başakşehir 1-4 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Başakşehir 0-1 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Fenerbahçe 4-0 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Başakşehir score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fenerbahçe score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Fenerbahçe | 2.1 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Başakşehir sit 10th in Süper Lig (11 points from 8 matches) and Fenerbahçe sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
A question about Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Başakşehir.
- Where and when is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe played?
- Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is played on December 6, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.