ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse (Sūsah)
The Footlab AI model makes ES Sahel the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely score is 1-1. If ES Sahel wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate ES Sahel (1,776) and US Ben Guerdane (1,757).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
ES Sahel
4-3-3- 7A. Ben Dhiaf
- 9M. Chaabani
- 29M. Senghor
- 25Ousmane Diakhate
- 30Rayane Anane
- 8O. Abid
- 2W. Kechrida
- 15B. Diarra
- 5K. Lanquetin
- 14N. Ferjani
- 16S. Ben Hsan
US Ben Guerdane
4-3-3- 7A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche
- 33N. Chachia
- 17A. Amri
- 10Ghazi Ayadi
- 8M. Camara
- 21G. Mounguide
- 30D. Oboh
- 25S. Harabi
- 14M. Yeken
- 5T. El Islem
- 31L. Hammami
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Sahel have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; US Ben Guerdane have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AS Marsa(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Tunis(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 3-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Olympique Béja(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 ES Sahel wins, 3 draws, 0 US Ben Guerdane wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | ES Sahel 0-0 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | US Ben Guerdane 0-0 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | ES Sahel 2-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | US Ben Guerdane 1-3 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | US Ben Guerdane 0-0 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2023 | ES Sahel 1-0 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane on Jan 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Sahel score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; US Ben Guerdane score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Sahel | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| US Ben Guerdane | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Sahel sit 12th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and US Ben Guerdane sit 3rd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
A question about ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane?
- The Footlab AI model makes ES Sahel the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for US Ben Guerdane.
- Where and when is ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane played?
- ES Sahel vs US Ben Guerdane is played on December 26, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Olympique de Sousse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.