ES Metlaoui vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, Métlaoui
The Footlab model makes ES Metlaoui the favourite at 37%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate ES Metlaoui (1,772) and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Metlaoui have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | ES Hammam-Sousse(away) | 3-2 | Ligue 2 |
| May 21, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| May 12, 2026 | Redeyef(home) | 5-0 | Ligue 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Stade Gabesien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
ES Metlaoui score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score 2.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Metlaoui | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 2.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Metlaoui sit 15th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Metlaoui vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer?
- The Footlab model makes ES Metlaoui the favourite at 37%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
- Where and when is ES Metlaoui vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer played?
- ES Metlaoui vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer is played on December 26, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.