ESMAC vs Vénus: prediction and stats
Paraense A3Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes ESMAC the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Vénus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ESMAC vs Vénus?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate ESMAC (1,592) and Vénus (1,512).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 10 matches in all competitions, ESMAC have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Vénus have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2025 | Uniao Paraense(away) | 1-1 | Paraense B1 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Amazônia PA(home) | 1-2 | Paraense B1 |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Uniao Paraense(home) | 0-2 | Paraense B1 |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Amazônia PA(away) | 1-1 | Paraense B1 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Independente PA(away) | 0-3 | Paraense B1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Auckland City(away) | 3-4 | OFC Champions League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Central Coast(away) | 0-3 | OFC Champions League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Tiga Sport(home) | 0-1 | OFC Champions League |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Belenense(away) | 1-3 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Belenense(home) | 1-0 | Paraense A3 |
How many goals should we expect?
ESMAC score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 10; Vénus score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESMAC | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1 | 6/10 | 4/10 |
| Vénus | 1.3 | 1.4 | 7 | 3/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 10 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vénus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ESMAC vs Vénus?
- The Footlab model makes ESMAC the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Vénus.
- Where and when is ESMAC vs Vénus played?
- ESMAC vs Vénus is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraense A3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.