ESMTK vs III. Kerületi TUE: prediction and stats
NB III - SoutheastSoutheast - 15Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)ESMTK Stadion, Budapest
The Footlab model makes ESMTK the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for III. Kerületi TUE. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ESMTK vs III. Kerületi TUE?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate ESMTK (1,654) and III. Kerületi TUE (1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ESMTK have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; III. Kerületi TUE have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Algyő SK(away) | 3-0 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BKV Előre(away) | 3-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Csepel(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hódmezővásárhely(home) | 2-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monori Se(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Southeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 2-7 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sándorfalva(away) | 3-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Hódmezővásárhely(away) | 3-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | BKV Előre(home) | 2-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Csepel(home) | 2-0 | NB III - Southeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 ESMTK win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 III. Kerületi TUE win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | III. Kerületi TUE 3-1 ESMTK | NB III - Southeast |
| Nov 2, 2025 | ESMTK 1-0 III. Kerületi TUE | NB III - Southeast |
| Feb 10, 2024 | III. Kerületi TUE 0-0 ESMTK | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2023 | ESMTK 4-1 III. Kerületi TUE | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 28, 2023 | III. Kerületi TUE 1-2 ESMTK | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: III. Kerületi TUE vs ESMTK on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ESMTK score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; III. Kerületi TUE score 2.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESMTK | 2.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 14/15 |
| III. Kerületi TUE | 2.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ESMTK sit 6th in NB III - Southeast (7 points from 4 matches) and III. Kerületi TUE sit 3rd (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | ESMTK | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ESMTK vs III. Kerületi TUE?
- The Footlab model makes ESMTK the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for III. Kerületi TUE.
- Where and when is ESMTK vs III. Kerületi TUE played?
- ESMTK vs III. Kerületi TUE is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at ESMTK Stadion, in the NB III - Southeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.