Estrela vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Estrela. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,460 Elo points against 2,045, a 415-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 27Rafa
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 18L. Barreiro
- 21A. Schjelderup
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 3A. Circati
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estrela wins, 0 draws, 6 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Benfica 4-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Estrela 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Estrela 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Benfica 7-0 Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Estrela 1-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Benfica | 3.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 10th in Primeira Liga (10 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Estrela vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Benfica played?
- Estrela vs Benfica is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.