Estrela vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Estrela. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,358 Elo points against 1,952 — a 406-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Benfica have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estrela win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Benfica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Benfica 4-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Estrela 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Estrela 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Benfica 7-0 Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Estrela 1-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 11th in Primeira Liga (2 points from 2 matches) and Benfica sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Benfica?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Benfica played?
- Estrela vs Benfica is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.