Etincelles vs Al Merreikh: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueMatchday 16Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 50%, against 32% for a draw and 18% for Etincelles. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,672 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etincelles vs Al Merreikh?
Al Merreikh starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,587).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etincelles vs Al Merreikh
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Al Merreikh
4-3-3- 29Ramadan Agab
- 32S. Patiño
- 28A. Balouchy
- 7Mohamed Al Rashed
- 8Wagdi Awad
- 30Anas Mohamed
- 13Ahmed Yousif Tabanja
- 2Adam Babajide
- 33Dia Wah Mickaël
- 25Elsamani Saadeldin
- 16O. Ojo
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 10:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etincelles have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Al Merreikh have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | APR(home) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Etoile de l'Est(home) | 3-0 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Horoya(home) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Etincelles wins, 0 draws, 2 Al Merreikh wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Al Merreikh 4-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Etincelles 1-2 Al Merreikh | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Al Merreikh vs Etincelles on May 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Al Merreikh score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Al Merreikh | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etincelles sit 16th in National Soccer League (7 points from 7 matches) and Al Merreikh sit 17th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Etincelles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
A question about Etincelles vs Al Merreikh?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etincelles vs Al Merreikh?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 50%, against 32% for a draw and 18% for Etincelles.
- Where and when is Etincelles vs Al Merreikh played?
- Etincelles vs Al Merreikh is played on January 9, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.