Bugesera vs AS Kigali: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bugesera Stadium, Nyamata
The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for AS Kigali. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bugesera vs AS Kigali?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Bugesera (1,668) and AS Kigali (1,630).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bugesera vs AS Kigali
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
AS Kigali
Not enough data to predict the AS Kigali lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bugesera have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; AS Kigali have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Etoile de l'Est(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Marines(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bugesera win, 2 draws, 3 AS Kigali wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Bugesera 2-0 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Dec 19, 2025 | AS Kigali 0-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | AS Kigali 1-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Bugesera 1-2 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Bugesera 0-0 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Aug 21, 2023 | AS Kigali 1-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Bugesera vs AS Kigali on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AS Kigali score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| AS Kigali | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bugesera sit 13th in National Soccer League (3 points from 2 matches) and AS Kigali sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
A question about Bugesera vs AS Kigali?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bugesera vs AS Kigali?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for AS Kigali.
- Where and when is Bugesera vs AS Kigali played?
- Bugesera vs AS Kigali is played on January 10, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bugesera Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.