Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Etoile de l'Est the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Etincelles. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Etoile de l'Est (1,585) and Etincelles (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etoile de l'Est have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Etincelles have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Bugesera(home) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 4, 2024 | Police(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Marines(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Amagaju(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Gorilla(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Marines(away) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 7, 2026 | Al Merreikh(away) | 1-4 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Etoile de l'Est win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Etincelles win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | Etincelles 1-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Etoile de l'Est 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Etincelles 3-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Nov 24, 2021 | Etoile de l'Est 4-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est on Feb 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Etoile de l'Est score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Etincelles score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
| Etincelles | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Etincelles | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 32 | 40 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles?
- The Footlab model makes Etoile de l'Est the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Etincelles.
- Where and when is Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles played?
- Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles is played on January 23, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.