Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Etoile de l'Est the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for Etincelles. The most likely score is 0-0. If Etoile de l'Est wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,250 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Etoile de l'Est (1,532) and Etincelles (1,587).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etoile de l'Est
Not enough data to predict the Etoile de l'Est lineup.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 12:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etoile de l'Est have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Etincelles have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Al Merreikh(away) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | APR(home) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Etoile de l'Est wins, 1 draw, 1 Etincelles win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | Etincelles 1-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Etoile de l'Est 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Etincelles 3-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Nov 24, 2021 | Etoile de l'Est 4-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etincelles vs Etoile de l'Est on Feb 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Etoile de l'Est score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etoile de l'Est sit 13th in National Soccer League (7 points from 7 matches) and Etincelles sit 16th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Etoile de l'Est | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Etincelles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles?
- The Footlab AI model makes Etoile de l'Est the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for Etincelles.
- Where and when is Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles played?
- Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles is played on January 23, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.