Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis
The Footlab model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for TOGB. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Excelsior Maassluis (1,816) and TOGB (1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior Maassluis have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; TOGB have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Poortugaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UNA(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Lisse(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Noordwijk(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 5-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Excelsior Maassluis win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 TOGB win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2024 | Excelsior Maassluis 1-1 TOGB | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB on Jul 30, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior Maassluis score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; TOGB score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Maassluis | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| TOGB | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior Maassluis sit 3rd in Derde Divisie (4 points from 2 matches) and TOGB sit 13th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | TOGB | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior Maassluis the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for TOGB.
- Where and when is Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB played?
- Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Dijkpolder, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.