Excelsior Virton vs Dender: prediction and stats
Challenger Pro LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade Yvan Georges, Virton
The Footlab model makes Excelsior Virton the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Dender. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Excelsior Virton starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (1,988 vs 1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior Virton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Dender have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | RSC Anderlecht II(away) | 1-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Strasbourg II(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rochefort(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Progres Niederkorn(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 2-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting Hasselt(away) | 0-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Oudenaarde(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Lommel United(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Excelsior Virton win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Dender win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Excelsior Virton 0-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| Feb 24, 2023 | Dender 2-1 Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Dender 3-4 Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Excelsior Virton 1-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Virton vs Dender on Apr 16, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior Virton score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Dender score 0.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Virton | 1.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Dender | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior Virton sit 1st in Challenger Pro League (6 points from 2 matches) and Dender sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior Virton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Dender | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior Virton the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Dender.
- Where and when is Excelsior Virton vs Dender played?
- Excelsior Virton vs Dender is played on November 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Yvan Georges, in the Challenger Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.