Excelsior Virton vs Dender: prediction and stats
Challenger Pro LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade Yvan Georges, Virton
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Virton the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Dender. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior Virton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Excelsior Virton starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (2,028 vs 1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior Virton vs Dender
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior Virton
5-3-2- 11A. Hachem
- 17T. Tormin
- 8G. Arib
- 13A. Dembélé
- 10P. Wade
- 3A. Tchaptchet
- 4E. Kari
- 22S. Assengue
- 18J. Ntenda
- 24H. Lambotte
- 1C. De Schrevel
Dender
5-3-2- 15K. Koton
- 7E. Mballa Amougou
- 18N. Rôdes
- 24M. Viltard
- 53A. Nhaili
- 21K. Cools
- 6B. Kerf
- 45Amine Daali
- 70M. Sambu
- 22I. Breugelmans
- 16J. Devriendt
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior Virton have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Dender have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sporting Hasselt(home) | 3-4 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Oostkamp(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 1-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | KRC Genk II(home) | 3-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Francs Borains(home) | 0-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Club Brugge II(home) | 3-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Hoogstraten(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 1-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Seraing United(home) | 2-0 | Challenger Pro League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Excelsior Virton win, 1 draw, 2 Dender wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Excelsior Virton 0-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| Feb 24, 2023 | Dender 2-1 Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Dender 3-4 Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Excelsior Virton 1-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Virton vs Dender on Apr 16, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior Virton score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Dender score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Virton | 1.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Dender | 1.5 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior Virton sit 6th in Challenger Pro League (10 points from 6 matches) and Dender sit 2nd (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Excelsior Virton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Virton the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Dender.
- Where and when is Excelsior Virton vs Dender played?
- Excelsior Virton vs Dender is played on November 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Yvan Georges, in the Challenger Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.