Excelsior vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (2,100 vs 1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Ajax have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Excelsior win, 4 draws, 1 Ajax win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Excelsior 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Ajax 1-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Excelsior 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Excelsior 1-4 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 9th in Eredivisie (11 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
A question about Excelsior vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Ajax played?
- Excelsior vs Ajax is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.