Twente vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
The Footlab AI model makes Twente the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Twente vs Excelsior?
Twente starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (2,091 vs 1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Twente vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Twente
4-2-3-1- 9W. Weghorst
- 6R. Zerrouki
- 8D. Weidmann
- 10Y. Taha
- 7M. Pjaca
- 11D. Rots
- 28B. van Rooij
- 4R. Nijstad
- 3R. Pröpper
- 29A. Adelgaard
- 1L. Unnerstall
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Twente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Twente wins, 2 draws, 1 Excelsior win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Twente 0-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Excelsior 1-0 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Excelsior 0-3 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Dec 8, 2023 | Twente 4-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Excelsior 0-0 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2022 | Twente 4-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Twente score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Twente sit 4th in Eredivisie (17 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
A question about Twente vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Twente vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Twente the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Twente vs Excelsior played?
- Twente vs Excelsior is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at De Grolsch Veste, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.