Twente vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
The Footlab model makes Twente the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Twente vs Excelsior?
Twente starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,071 vs 1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Twente have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Twente win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Excelsior win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Twente 0-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Excelsior 1-0 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Excelsior 0-3 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Dec 8, 2023 | Twente 4-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Excelsior 0-0 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Aug 31, 2022 | Twente 4-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Twente score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Twente sit 12th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Twente vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab model makes Twente the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Twente vs Excelsior played?
- Twente vs Excelsior is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at De Grolsch Veste, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.