Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 41Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Excursionistas, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Sportivo Italiano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Excursionistas (1,766) and Sportivo Italiano (1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excursionistas have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Sportivo Italiano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Argentino de Merlo(home) | 2-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 5-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(home) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Comunicaciones(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dock Sud(home) | 4-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo(away) | 4-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Camioneros(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Excursionistas win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Sportivo Italiano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Sportivo Italiano 0-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Sportivo Italiano 2-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Excursionistas 2-0 Sportivo Italiano | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Excursionistas 1-1 Sportivo Italiano | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 20, 2024 | Sportivo Italiano 0-3 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 4, 2023 | Excursionistas 1-1 Sportivo Italiano | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas on Jun 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excursionistas score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sportivo Italiano score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excursionistas | 1.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sportivo Italiano | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excursionistas sit 1st in Primera B Metropolitana (41 points from 20 matches) and Sportivo Italiano sit 6th (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 | Excursionistas | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 59 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 33 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano?
- The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Sportivo Italiano.
- Where and when is Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano played?
- Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano is played on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Excursionistas, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Arsenal SarandivsDeportivo Camioneros
- Oct 24, 2026Brown DE AdroguevsDefensores Unidos
- Oct 24, 2026Villa DalminevsSan Martín Burzaco
- Oct 24, 2026Deportivo LaferrerevsComunicaciones
- Oct 24, 2026Talleres RemediosvsDock Sud
- Oct 24, 2026UAI UrquizavsVilla San Carlos
- Oct 24, 2026Real PilarvsLiniers
- Oct 24, 2026Deportivo ArmeniovsArgentino Quilmes