FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC)Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Neuchatel Xamax FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate FC Aarau (1,856) and Neuchatel Xamax FC (1,769).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Aarau have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Neuchatel Xamax FC have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 3-3 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Union Berlin(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Meyrin(away) | 0-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 1-0 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FC WIL 1900(away) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | SC Kriens(home) | 3-2 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Aarau win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Neuchatel Xamax FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC 1-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | FC Aarau 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Neuchatel Xamax FC 1-2 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | FC Aarau 2-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Neuchatel Xamax FC 1-1 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Mar 7, 2025 | FC Aarau 2-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau on May 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Aarau score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Neuchatel Xamax FC score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Aarau sit 6th in Challenge League (4 points from 3 matches) and Neuchatel Xamax FC sit 2nd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC?
- The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Neuchatel Xamax FC.
- Where and when is FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC played?
- FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC) at Stadion Brügglifeld, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.