FC Lisse vs Excelsior Maassluis: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Ter Specke, Lisse
The Footlab model makes FC Lisse the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior Maassluis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Lisse vs Excelsior Maassluis?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate FC Lisse (1,862) and Excelsior Maassluis (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Lisse have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Excelsior Maassluis have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Roosendaal(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aalsmeer(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Achilles Veen(home) | 4-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | ADO '20(home) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Lisse win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Excelsior Maassluis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | Excelsior Maassluis 5-0 FC Lisse | Tweede Divisie |
| Aug 26, 2023 | FC Lisse 1-1 Excelsior Maassluis | Tweede Divisie |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Excelsior Maassluis 0-1 FC Lisse | Tweede Divisie |
| Sep 3, 2022 | FC Lisse 1-1 Excelsior Maassluis | Tweede Divisie |
| Mar 31, 2018 | Excelsior Maassluis 2-0 FC Lisse | Tweede Divisie |
| Oct 14, 2017 | FC Lisse 2-3 Excelsior Maassluis | Tweede Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Maassluis vs FC Lisse on Jan 20, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
FC Lisse score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior Maassluis score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lisse | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Excelsior Maassluis | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Lisse sit 2nd in Derde Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior Maassluis sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Lisse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Lisse vs Excelsior Maassluis?
- The Footlab model makes FC Lisse the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior Maassluis.
- Where and when is FC Lisse vs Excelsior Maassluis played?
- FC Lisse vs Excelsior Maassluis is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Ter Specke, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.