FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus: prediction and stats
SuperligaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)MCH Arena, Herning
The Footlab model makes FC Midtjylland the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Aarhus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate FC Midtjylland (2,170) and Aarhus (2,075).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Midtjylland have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Aarhus have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Randers FC(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lyngby(away) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Bohemians(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Odense(home) | 2-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Viborg(away) | 1-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sabah FA(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Midtjylland win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Aarhus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aarhus 0-0 FC Midtjylland | Superliga |
| Apr 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland 2-1 Aarhus | Superliga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | FC Midtjylland 1-1 Aarhus | DBU Pokalen |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Aarhus 0-1 FC Midtjylland | DBU Pokalen |
| Nov 3, 2025 | FC Midtjylland 1-1 Aarhus | Superliga |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Aarhus 0-0 FC Midtjylland | Superliga |
Last archived meeting: Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Midtjylland score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Midtjylland sit 4th in Superliga (10 points from 4 matches) and Aarhus sit 10th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus?
- The Footlab model makes FC Midtjylland the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Aarhus.
- Where and when is FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus played?
- FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus is played on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at MCH Arena, in the Superliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.