FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)MCH Arena, Herning
The Footlab AI model makes FC Midtjylland the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC Midtjylland wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate FC Midtjylland (2,150) and Ajax (2,111).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Midtjylland
3-4-1-2- 90F. Etim
- 18S. Iheanacho
- 19P. Bravo
- 8P. Billing
- 98D. Martínez
- 21D. Castillo
- 29K. Wätjen
- 22M. Bech
- 5R. Kristensen
- 3M. Jensen
- 1E. Ólafsson
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 18D. Klaassen
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Midtjylland have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Ajax have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(home) | 2-1 | Superliga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Odense(away) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Brondby(home) | 4-1 | Superliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sundby(away) | 7-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Sep 7, 2026 | FC Nordsjaelland(home) | 2-2 | Superliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 FC Midtjylland wins, 0 draws, 2 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2020 | Ajax 3-1 FC Midtjylland | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 3, 2020 | FC Midtjylland 1-2 Ajax | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Ajax vs FC Midtjylland on Nov 25, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
FC Midtjylland score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Midtjylland the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Ajax.
- Where and when is FC Midtjylland vs Ajax played?
- FC Midtjylland vs Ajax is played on November 5, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at MCH Arena, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.