Feyenoord vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Feyenoord the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Feyenoord vs Ajax?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Feyenoord (2,117) and Ajax (2,110).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Feyenoord have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Ajax have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Feyenoord win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Feyenoord 1-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Ajax 2-0 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Ajax 2-1 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Feyenoord 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Feyenoord 6-0 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Ajax 0-4 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Feyenoord score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 2.3 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Feyenoord sit 4th in Eredivisie (7 points from 3 matches) and Ajax sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Feyenoord vs Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Feyenoord the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Ajax.
- Where and when is Feyenoord vs Ajax played?
- Feyenoord vs Ajax is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Feijenoord, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.