FC Orenburg vs Fakel: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 25Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Gazovik, Rostoshi
The Footlab AI model makes FC Orenburg the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC Orenburg wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,585 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Orenburg vs Fakel?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate FC Orenburg (1,889) and Fakel (1,828).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Orenburg vs Fakel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Orenburg
4-2-3-1- 30G. Guzina
- 20D. Rybchinskiy
- 78R. Kul
- 10J. Thompson
- 8D. Puebla
- 57E. Bolotov
- 5A. Tataev
- 26E. Tsenov
- 24M. Sivis
- 6J. Palacios
- 1B. Ovsyannikov
Fakel
5-3-2- 19B. Pusi
- 90A. Koksharov
- 23V. Yakimov
- 97B. Magomedov
- 52R. Netfullin
- 40Clayton
- 53M. Bardachev
- 17A. Kovalev
- 5A. Gabaraev
- 55D. Todorović
- 96I. Obukhov
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 01:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Orenburg have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Fakel have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Orenburg win, 3 draws, 2 Fakel wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fakel 0-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FC Orenburg 1-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Fakel 1-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fakel 0-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | FC Orenburg 1-2 Fakel | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2023 | FC Orenburg 0-0 Fakel | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Orenburg score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Fakel | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Orenburg sit 10th in Premier League (17 points from 14 matches) and Fakel sit 16th (6 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Orenburg | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 16 | Fakel | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 6 |
A question about FC Orenburg vs Fakel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Orenburg vs Fakel?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Orenburg the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Fakel.
- Where and when is FC Orenburg vs Fakel played?
- FC Orenburg vs Fakel is played on April 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gazovik, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.