Fakel vs Rubin: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Voronezh
The Footlab model makes Fakel the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Rubin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fakel vs Rubin?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Fakel (1,848) and Rubin (1,929).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fakel have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Rubin have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fakel win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Rubin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Rubin 2-1 Fakel | Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Rubin 0-1 Fakel | Cup |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Fakel 0-0 Rubin | Premier League |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fakel 0-2 Rubin | Cup |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Rubin 1-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Sep 25, 2023 | Fakel 0-1 Rubin | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rubin score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rubin | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fakel sit 15th in Premier League (2 points from 5 matches) and Rubin sit 8th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fakel vs Rubin?
- The Footlab model makes Fakel the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Rubin.
- Where and when is Fakel vs Rubin played?
- Fakel vs Rubin is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.