FC Seoul vs Incheon United: prediction and stats
K League 1Regular Season - 27Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Seoul World Cup Stadium, Seoul
The Footlab model makes FC Seoul the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Incheon United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Seoul vs Incheon United?
FC Seoul starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,743).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Seoul have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Incheon United have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Anyang(away) | 7-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Daejeon Citizen(home) | 4-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Busan I Park(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gwangju FC(away) | 1-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC(home) | 1-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jeju United FC(away) | 3-3 | K League 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gimpo Citizen(away) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bucheon FC 1995(home) | 1-1 | K League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Seoul win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Incheon United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | FC Seoul 1-0 Incheon United | K League 1 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Incheon United 1-2 FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Incheon United 0-1 FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| May 11, 2024 | Incheon United 1-2 FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| Mar 10, 2024 | FC Seoul 0-0 Incheon United | K League 1 |
| Jul 22, 2023 | FC Seoul 0-1 Incheon United | K League 1 |
Last archived meeting: FC Seoul vs Incheon United on Jul 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Seoul score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Incheon United score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 1.7 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Incheon United | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Seoul sit 1st in K League 1 (50 points from 24 matches) and Incheon United sit 6th (33 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 50 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 25 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Seoul vs Incheon United?
- The Footlab model makes FC Seoul the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Incheon United.
- Where and when is FC Seoul vs Incheon United played?
- FC Seoul vs Incheon United is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Seoul World Cup Stadium, in the K League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.