Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC: prediction and stats
K League 1Regular Season - 27Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon
The Footlab model makes Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Gwangju FC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,756 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Gwangju FC have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors(home) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jeju United FC(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Gimpo Citizen(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Incheon United(away) | 1-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 2-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Incheon United(home) | 0-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ulsan Citizen(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pohang Steelers(home) | 1-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bucheon FC 1995(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Gwangju FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| May 5, 2025 | Gwangju FC 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gwangju FC score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Gwangju FC | 0.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit 11th in K League 1 (27 points from 25 matches) and Gwangju FC sit 12th (12 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 25 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 27 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 25 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 52 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
- The Footlab model makes Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Gwangju FC.
- Where and when is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC played?
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC is played on September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Gimcheon Stadium, in the K League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.