Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest: prediction and stats
NB IRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Groupama Aréna, Budapest
The Footlab model makes Ferencvarosi TC the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for MTK Budapest. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest?
Ferencvarosi TC starts as the favourite with a 283-point Elo edge (2,061 vs 1,778).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ferencvarosi TC have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; MTK Budapest have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Trabzonspor(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(away) | 1-0 | NB I |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nyiregyhaza(home) | 2-1 | NB I |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ujpest(away) | 1-1 | NB I |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Puskas Academy(home) | 2-3 | NB I |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Budapest Honved(away) | 3-3 | NB I |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(home) | 3-0 | NB I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Ferencvarosi TC win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 MTK Budapest win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | MTK Budapest 1-3 Ferencvarosi TC | NB I |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Ferencvarosi TC 4-1 MTK Budapest | NB I |
| Jul 26, 2025 | MTK Budapest 1-1 Ferencvarosi TC | NB I |
| Apr 27, 2025 | MTK Budapest 2-3 Ferencvarosi TC | NB I |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Ferencvarosi TC 3-1 MTK Budapest | Magyar Kupa |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Ferencvarosi TC 0-0 MTK Budapest | NB I |
Last archived meeting: MTK Budapest vs Ferencvarosi TC on Feb 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ferencvarosi TC score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; MTK Budapest score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 1.7 | 0.8 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| MTK Budapest | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ferencvarosi TC sit 10th in NB I (4 points from 3 matches) and MTK Budapest sit 4th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MTK Budapest | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest?
- The Footlab model makes Ferencvarosi TC the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for MTK Budapest.
- Where and when is Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest played?
- Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Groupama Aréna, in the NB I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.