Match

Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias: prediction and stats

Copa Santa CatarinaSemi-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina

FigueirenseMarcílio Dias

The Footlab AI model makes Figueirense the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Marcílio Dias. The most likely score is 1-1. If Figueirense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,916 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?

A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Figueirense (1,644) and Marcílio Dias (1,639).

49%26%25%
Figueirense winDrawMarcílio Dias win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Figueirense

4-3-3
  1. 99Émerson Galego
  2. 70Igor Bolt
  3. 17Mailson
  1. 8Dudu
  2. 22Vitor Ricardo
  3. 14Breno
  1. 6Arthur Henrique
  2. 7Raynan
  3. 3Leonan Santos
  4. 37Lucas Dias
  1. 12Fabrício

Marcílio Dias

4-3-3
  1. 10Cesinha
  2. 9Lucas Batatinha
  3. 17Jose Carlos
  1. 8Felipe Baiano
  2. 15Guilherme Kante
  3. 7Roldan
  1. 2Victor Guilherme
  2. 4Luan
  3. 5Reginaldo
  4. 6Jonathan
  1. 1Matheus Cavichioli

Computed on November 8, 2026 at 07:38 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Figueirense have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Marcílio Dias have 6, 7 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Figueirense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Blumenau(away)2-3Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 24, 2026Joinville(home)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 16, 2026Marcílio Dias(away)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 10, 2026Hercílio Luz(home)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 27, 2026Metropolitano(away)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Marcílio Dias
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Barra(home)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 16, 2026Figueirense(home)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 9, 2026Nação(away)0-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 26, 2026Blumenau(away)1-1Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 19, 2026Hercílio Luz(home)4-2Copa Santa Catarina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Figueirense wins, 1 draw, 3 Marcílio Dias wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Marcílio Dias 2-2 FigueirenseCopa Santa Catarina
Feb 20, 2026Figueirense 0-1 Marcílio DiasCatarinense - 1
Feb 13, 2026Marcílio Dias 1-0 FigueirenseCatarinense - 1
Jan 10, 2026Figueirense 1-0 Marcílio DiasCatarinense - 1
Nov 9, 2025Marcílio Dias 2-1 FigueirenseCopa Santa Catarina
Nov 2, 2025Figueirense 3-0 Marcílio DiasCopa Santa Catarina

Last archived meeting: Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense on Oct 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Figueirense score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marcílio Dias score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Figueirense1.30.978/157/15
Marcílio Dias1.91.3311/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?
The Footlab AI model makes Figueirense the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Marcílio Dias.
Where and when is Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias played?
Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias is played on November 14, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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