Firpo vs Alianza: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 3Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera, Usulután
The Footlab model makes Firpo the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Alianza. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Firpo vs Alianza?
Firpo starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,819 vs 1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Firpo have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Alianza have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Platense(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 21, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inca Aruba(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 4-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cacahuatique(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Estelí(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Firpo win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Alianza win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Firpo 2-1 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Alianza 2-3 Firpo | Primera Division |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Firpo 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Firpo 0-5 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Alianza 3-3 Firpo | Primera Division |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Firpo 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Firpo score 1.6 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firpo | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Alianza | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Firpo sit 3rd in Primera Division (11 points from 5 matches) and Alianza sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Firpo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Alianza | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Firpo vs Alianza?
- The Footlab model makes Firpo the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Alianza.
- Where and when is Firpo vs Alianza played?
- Firpo vs Alianza is played on September 17, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.