Firpo vs Alianza: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 3Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera, Usulután
The Footlab AI model makes Firpo the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Alianza. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,445 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Firpo vs Alianza?
Firpo starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,728 vs 1,624).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Firpo vs Alianza
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Firpo
4-4-1-1- 7L. S. Vasquez Velasquez
- 17M. Cerritos
- 26M. Mercado
- 10V. García
- 28R. Águila
- 27D. Ortez
- 24J. Jimenez
- 3W. Y. Arizala Dajomes
- 6E. Vigil
- 12D. A. Flores Sanchez
- 25F. Amaya
Alianza
4-1-4-1- 7M. Mier
- 6N. Orellana
- 10L. Menjívar
- 8H. Osorio
- 14W. Parra
- 56D. Romero
- 23J. Monteagudo
- 29E. Hernández
- 19N. A. Rodriguez Arias
- 3J. Sibrián
- 13M. González
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 06:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Firpo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Alianza have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | FAS(home) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Deportivo Saprissa(away) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Deportivo Saprissa(home) | 0-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Inca Aruba(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Oct 28, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 0-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Oct 21, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Firpo wins, 3 draws, 1 Alianza win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alianza 2-2 Firpo | Primera Division |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Firpo 2-1 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Alianza 2-3 Firpo | Primera Division |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Firpo 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Firpo 0-5 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Alianza 3-3 Firpo | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Firpo score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firpo | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Alianza | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Firpo sit 1st in Primera Division (32 points from 16 matches) and Alianza sit 7th (23 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 12 | 32 |
| 7 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
A question about Firpo vs Alianza?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Firpo vs Alianza?
- The Footlab AI model makes Firpo the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Alianza.
- Where and when is Firpo vs Alianza played?
- Firpo vs Alianza is played on November 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.