Alianza vs Firpo: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 14Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Cuscatlán, San Salvador
The Footlab model makes Firpo the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Alianza. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza vs Firpo?
Firpo starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,819 vs 1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Firpo have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cacahuatique(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Estelí(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Platense(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 21, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inca Aruba(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 4-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alianza win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Firpo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Firpo 2-1 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Alianza 2-3 Firpo | Primera Division |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Firpo 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Firpo 0-5 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Alianza 3-3 Firpo | Primera Division |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Firpo 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Firpo score 1.6 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Firpo | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza sit 10th in Primera Division (4 points from 4 matches) and Firpo sit 3rd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Firpo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Alianza | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza vs Firpo?
- The Footlab model makes Firpo the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Alianza.
- Where and when is Alianza vs Firpo played?
- Alianza vs Firpo is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Cuscatlán, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.