Match

FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci: prediction and stats

1st DivisionRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kukës Arena, Kukës

FK KukesiPogradeci

The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for FK Kukesi. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?

Pogradeci starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,512).

FK Kukesi win23 %
Draw27 %
Pogradeci win50 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Kukesi have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Pogradeci have 10, 2 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FK Kukesi
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 12, 2026Besa Kavajë(home)1-4Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026Maliqi(away)3-1Friendlies Clubs
May 28, 2026Butrinti Sarandë(home)2-01st Division
May 9, 2026Bylis B(home)1-11st Division
May 3, 2026Besa Kavajë(home)2-11st Division
Pogradeci
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 16, 2026Teuta Durrës(away)0-1Superliga
May 11, 2026Besa Kavajë(home)1-0Superliga
May 7, 2026Kastrioti Krujë(home)3-0Superliga
May 3, 2026Luftëtari(away)0-31st Division
Apr 25, 2026Skenderbeu Korce(home)1-11st Division

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FK Kukesi win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Pogradeci win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 11, 2026Pogradeci 5-1 FK Kukesi1st Division
Dec 13, 2025Pogradeci 2-0 FK Kukesi1st Division
Sep 27, 2025FK Kukesi 1-3 Pogradeci1st Division
Apr 13, 2025Pogradeci 3-0 FK Kukesi1st Division
Jan 10, 2025FK Kukesi 3-1 Pogradeci1st Division
Nov 20, 2024FK Kukesi 2-1 PogradeciCup

Last archived meeting: Pogradeci vs FK Kukesi on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FK Kukesi score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FK Kukesi1.41.3510/157/15
Pogradeci2.20.957/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FK Kukesi sit 10th in 1st Division (31 points from 33 matches) and Pogradeci sit 3rd (68 points from 33 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Pogradeci332085633168
10FK Kukesi338718315031

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?
The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for FK Kukesi.
Where and when is FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci played?
FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci is played on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kukës Arena, in the 1st Division.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: FK Kukesi and Pogradeci

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