Besa Kavajë vs Oriku: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Luz i Vogël, Luz i Vogël
The Footlab model makes Besa Kavajë the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Oriku. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Besa Kavajë vs Oriku?
Besa Kavajë starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,641 vs 1,494).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Besa Kavajë have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Oriku have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | FK Kukesi(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2026 | Pogradeci(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë(away) | 2-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | FK Kukesi(away) | 1-2 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Korabi Peshkopi(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | FK Kukesi(away) | 0-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Tomori Berat(home) | 3-2 | 2nd Division - Play-offs |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Butrinti Sarandë(home) | 1-1 | 2nd Division - Play-offs |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Memaliaj(away) | 7-0 | 2nd Division - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Besa Kavajë win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Oriku win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | Besa Kavajë 0-1 Oriku | 1st Division |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Oriku 0-1 Besa Kavajë | 1st Division |
| Dec 8, 2019 | Besa Kavajë 2-0 Oriku | 1st Division |
| Sep 14, 2019 | Oriku 2-1 Besa Kavajë | 1st Division |
| May 11, 2019 | Besa Kavajë 2-3 Oriku | 1st Division |
| Apr 6, 2019 | Oriku 0-1 Besa Kavajë | 1st Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Besa Kavajë score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Oriku score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besa Kavajë | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Oriku | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Besa Kavajë | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 41 | 43 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Besa Kavajë vs Oriku?
- The Footlab model makes Besa Kavajë the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Oriku.
- Where and when is Besa Kavajë vs Oriku played?
- Besa Kavajë vs Oriku is played on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Luz i Vogël, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.