Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab AI model makes Montecchio Gallo the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Montecchio Gallo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,654) and Montecchio Gallo (1,680).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Montecchio Gallo
Not enough data to predict the Montecchio Gallo lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Montecchio Gallo have 2, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lanciano FC(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pietralunga(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Montecchio Gallo score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Montecchio Gallo | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2 | 3/6 | 2/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 10th in Serie D - Girone F (10 points from 7 matches) and Montecchio Gallo sit 12th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Montecchio Gallo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
A question about Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montecchio Gallo the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo played?
- Fossombrone vs Montecchio Gallo is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.