Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli, Senigallia
The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Vigor Senigallia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Vigor Senigallia (1,714) and Notaresco (1,740).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vigor Senigallia have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Notaresco have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Unipomezia(away) | 3-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Chieti(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 10, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vigor Senigallia win(s), 5 draw(s), 0 Notaresco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Notaresco 1-1 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Notaresco 2-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 2-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Notaresco 4-4 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vigor Senigallia score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigor Senigallia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
| Notaresco | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vigor Senigallia sit 8th in Serie D - Girone F (49 points from 34 matches) and Notaresco sit 5th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Notaresco | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 51 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45 | 40 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco?
- The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Vigor Senigallia.
- Where and when is Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco played?
- Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.