Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli, Senigallia
The Footlab AI model makes Vigor Senigallia the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Notaresco. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vigor Senigallia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,937 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Vigor Senigallia (1,778) and Notaresco (1,784).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vigor Senigallia
Not enough data to predict the Vigor Senigallia lineup.
Notaresco
5-3-2- 10P. Banegas
- 17A. Mancini
- 9Mateus Ribeiro
- 7L. Marchionni
- 4L. Bianciardi
- 6I. Speranza
- 33M. Gallo
- 24R. Di Stefano
- 5G. Colombatti
- 13J. Di Saverio
- 1K. Shiba
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 06:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vigor Senigallia have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Notaresco have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santegidiese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 4-6 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Maceratese(home) | 5-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pietralunga(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vigor Senigallia win, 5 draws, 0 Notaresco wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Notaresco 1-1 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Notaresco 2-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 2-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Notaresco 4-4 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vigor Senigallia score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Notaresco score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigor Senigallia | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Notaresco | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vigor Senigallia sit 3rd in Serie D - Girone F (16 points from 8 matches) and Notaresco sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
A question about Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vigor Senigallia the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Notaresco.
- Where and when is Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco played?
- Vigor Senigallia vs Notaresco is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.