Fossombrone vs Vigor Senigallia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab model makes Vigor Senigallia the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Vigor Senigallia?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,672) and Vigor Senigallia (1,713).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Vigor Senigallia have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cesena(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Unipomezia(away) | 3-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Chieti(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fossombrone win(s), 5 draw(s), 1 Vigor Senigallia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Fossombrone 1-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Fossombrone 0-0 Vigor Senigallia | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Vigor Senigallia 2-2 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Fossombrone 2-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 1-1 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vigor Senigallia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Vigor Senigallia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 9th in Serie D - Girone F (44 points from 34 matches) and Vigor Senigallia sit 8th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45 | 40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Vigor Senigallia?
- The Footlab model makes Vigor Senigallia the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Vigor Senigallia played?
- Fossombrone vs Vigor Senigallia is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.