Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis: prediction and stats
Sergipano - 2Semi-finalsKick-off on November 21, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Frei Paulistano the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Carmópolis. The most likely score is 1-1. If Frei Paulistano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,185 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis?
On Elo ratings, Frei Paulistano has 1,526 points and Carmópolis 1,440.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Frei Paulistano
4-3-3- AAcássio
- TTiquinho
- HHudson
- MMatheus
- HHenrique Silva
- WWillian
- RRaúl Rocha
- PPedrinho
- DDaniel Santos
- JJorge
- EElvis
Carmópolis
4-3-3- SSorriso
- AAllan Santos
- WWalisson
- KKennidy
- JJosé Éverton
- PPedro Victor Cardoso Sobral
- DDaniel Santos
- DDudu Paraíba
- TThierry
- FFelipe
- BBruno Mateus
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 05:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Frei Paulistano have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Carmópolis have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Carmópolis(away) | 1-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Independente Simão Dias(away) | 6-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Estanciano(away) | 2-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Barra SE(home) | 5-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Maruinense(away) | 1-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Frei Paulistano(home) | 1-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 10, 2026 | Olímpico SE(home) | 2-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Socorrense(away) | 0-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Caninde(home) | 3-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | América de Pedrinhas(home) | 8-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Frei Paulistano wins, 1 draw, 0 Carmópolis wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Carmópolis 1-1 Frei Paulistano | Sergipano - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano on Nov 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Frei Paulistano score 2.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Carmópolis score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frei Paulistano | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Carmópolis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Frei Paulistano sit 1st in Sergipano - 2 (12 points from 5 matches) and Carmópolis sit 2nd (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frei Paulistano | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Carmópolis | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 9 |
A question about Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis?
- The Footlab AI model makes Frei Paulistano the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Carmópolis.
- Where and when is Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis played?
- Frei Paulistano vs Carmópolis is played on November 21, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Sergipano - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.