Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg played?

FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg is played on March 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion am Bruchweg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 24Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion am Bruchweg, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 II

SGV Freiberg

The Footlab model makes SGV Freiberg the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for FSV Mainz 05 II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg?

SGV Freiberg starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,029 vs 1,915).

FSV Mainz 05 II win27 %

Draw23 %

SGV Freiberg win50 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; SGV Freiberg have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05 II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 16, 2026	FSV Frankfurt(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026	FC 08 Homburg(away)	1-2	Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 22, 2026	Kreuzlingen(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

SGV Freiberg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	VfR Mannheim(away)	0-0	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 15, 2026	FC 08 Homburg(home)	3-0	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026	Kaiserslautern II(away)	5-0	Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 18, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026	Hoffenheim II(home)	1-6	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FSV Mainz 05 II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 SGV Freiberg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 25, 2026	SGV Freiberg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Oct 25, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 II 2-1 SGV Freiberg	Regionalliga - SudWest
Apr 5, 2025	SGV Freiberg 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Oct 5, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 II 3-2 SGV Freiberg	Regionalliga - SudWest
Apr 27, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 II 0-2 SGV Freiberg	Regionalliga - SudWest
Oct 21, 2023	SGV Freiberg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest

Last archived meeting: SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 II score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; SGV Freiberg score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05 II	1.4	1.4	4	9/15	10/15
SGV Freiberg	1.7	2.1	4	9/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 II sit 13th in Regionalliga - SudWest (3 points from 3 matches) and SGV Freiberg sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	SGV Freiberg	3	2	1	0	8	0	7
13	FSV Mainz 05 II	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg?: The Footlab model makes SGV Freiberg the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for FSV Mainz 05 II.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg played?: FSV Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg is played on March 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion am Bruchweg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.