Match

SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Wasen-Stadion, Freiberg

SGV FreibergFSV Mainz 05 II

The Footlab model makes SGV Freiberg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for FSV Mainz 05 II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II?

SGV Freiberg starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,029 vs 1,915).

SGV Freiberg win49 %
Draw24 %
FSV Mainz 05 II win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SGV Freiberg have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 II have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

SGV Freiberg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026VfR Mannheim(away)0-0Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 15, 2026FC 08 Homburg(home)3-0Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026Kaiserslautern II(away)5-0Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 18, 20261899 Hoffenheim(home)0-3Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026Hoffenheim II(home)1-6Friendlies Clubs
FSV Mainz 05 II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Kickers Offenbach(away)1-3Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 16, 2026FSV Frankfurt(home)2-1Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026FC 08 Homburg(away)1-2Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 22, 2026Kreuzlingen(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 SGV Freiberg win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 FSV Mainz 05 II win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 25, 2026SGV Freiberg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 IIRegionalliga - SudWest
Oct 25, 2025FSV Mainz 05 II 2-1 SGV FreibergRegionalliga - SudWest
Apr 5, 2025SGV Freiberg 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 IIRegionalliga - SudWest
Oct 5, 2024FSV Mainz 05 II 3-2 SGV FreibergRegionalliga - SudWest
Apr 27, 2024FSV Mainz 05 II 0-2 SGV FreibergRegionalliga - SudWest
Oct 21, 2023SGV Freiberg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 IIRegionalliga - SudWest

Last archived meeting: SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II on Apr 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

SGV Freiberg score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 II score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
SGV Freiberg1.72.149/1513/15
FSV Mainz 05 II1.41.449/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

SGV Freiberg sit 2nd in Regionalliga - SudWest (7 points from 3 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 II sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2SGV Freiberg3210807
13FSV Mainz 05 II3102463

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II?
The Footlab model makes SGV Freiberg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for FSV Mainz 05 II.
Where and when is SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II played?
SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II is played on September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Wasen-Stadion, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: SGV Freiberg and FSV Mainz 05 II

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