Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)David Petriashvili Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Batumi the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Gagra (1,594) and Dinamo Batumi (1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gagra have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Dinamo Batumi have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Samgurali(away) | 4-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Telavi(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Irao(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gagra win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Dinamo Batumi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi 2-2 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 6, 2026 | Gagra 1-2 Dinamo Batumi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi 1-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Gagra 4-1 Dinamo Batumi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Dinamo Batumi 1-2 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Gagra 1-1 Dinamo Batumi | Erovnuli Liga |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Batumi score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Dinamo Batumi | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gagra sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga (24 points from 22 matches) and Dinamo Batumi sit 4th (34 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 32 | 34 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Batumi the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi played?
- Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at David Petriashvili Arena, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.