Samgurali vs Meshakhte: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab model makes Samgurali the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Meshakhte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samgurali vs Meshakhte?
Samgurali starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,619 vs 1,442).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samgurali have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Meshakhte have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 4-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | WIT Georgia(away) | 2-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dila(away) | 1-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Samgurali(home) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Samgurali(away) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gonio(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Samgurali win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Meshakhte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Meshakhte 1-2 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Samgurali 1-0 Meshakhte | David Kipiani Cup |
| May 6, 2026 | Samgurali 3-1 Meshakhte | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Meshakhte 0-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 19, 2017 | Samgurali 5-0 Meshakhte | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 11, 2017 | Meshakhte 1-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Meshakhte vs Samgurali on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samgurali score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Meshakhte score 0.8 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samgurali | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Meshakhte | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samgurali sit 6th in Erovnuli Liga (31 points from 22 matches) and Meshakhte sit 10th (11 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Samgurali | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 31 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 40 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samgurali vs Meshakhte?
- The Footlab model makes Samgurali the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Meshakhte.
- Where and when is Samgurali vs Meshakhte played?
- Samgurali vs Meshakhte is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.