Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)David Petriashvili Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
Torpedo Kutaisi starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,722 vs 1,594).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gagra have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Torpedo Kutaisi have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dila(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Iveria Khashuri(away) | 3-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gagra win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Torpedo Kutaisi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi 1-2 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Gagra 2-2 Torpedo Kutaisi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Gagra 0-2 Torpedo Kutaisi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Torpedo Kutaisi 2-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Torpedo Kutaisi 2-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Gagra 1-2 Torpedo Kutaisi | Erovnuli Liga |
Last archived meeting: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Gagra on May 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Torpedo Kutaisi score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Torpedo Kutaisi | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gagra sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga (24 points from 22 matches) and Torpedo Kutaisi sit 5th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 25 | 31 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
- The Footlab model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi played?
- Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi is played on September 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at David Petriashvili Arena, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.