Gama vs ASA: prediction and stats
Serie DSemi-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Walmir Campelo Bezerra, Gama, Distrito Federal
The Footlab model makes Gama the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for ASA. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gama vs ASA?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Gama (1,913) and ASA (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gama have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; ASA have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ASA(away) | 0-2 | Serie D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sao Jose(home) | 4-0 | Serie D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jul 26, 2026 | America-RN(home) | 3-2 | Serie D |
| Jul 19, 2026 | America-RN(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gama(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Goiatuba EC(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Goiatuba EC(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cianorte(home) | 5-1 | Serie D |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Cianorte(away) | 1-0 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Gama win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 ASA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ASA 2-0 Gama | Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Gama score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; ASA score 1.3 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gama | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| ASA | 1.3 | 0.6 | 7 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gama sit 1st in Serie D (26 points from 10 matches) and ASA sit 3rd (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gama | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | 26 |
| 3 | ASA | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gama vs ASA?
- The Footlab model makes Gama the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for ASA.
- Where and when is Gama vs ASA played?
- Gama vs ASA is played on August 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Walmir Campelo Bezerra, in the Serie D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.