Gandzasar vs Ararat: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gandzasar Stadium, Kapan
The Footlab model makes Gandzasar the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Ararat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gandzasar vs Ararat?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Gandzasar (1,453) and Ararat (1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gandzasar have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Ararat have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Shirak(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Syunik(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(home) | 3-4 | Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gandzasar win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Ararat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Gandzasar 2-1 Ararat | Premier League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Ararat 0-2 Gandzasar | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Gandzasar 1-1 Ararat | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Gandzasar 1-1 Ararat | Premier League |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Ararat 1-1 Gandzasar | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Ararat 1-1 Gandzasar | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Gandzasar score 1.2 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gandzasar | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gandzasar sit 8th in Premier League (3 points from 4 matches) and Ararat sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gandzasar | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gandzasar vs Ararat?
- The Footlab model makes Gandzasar the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Ararat.
- Where and when is Gandzasar vs Ararat played?
- Gandzasar vs Ararat is played on September 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gandzasar Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.