GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Essity Stadium, Y Fflint / Flint, Flintshire
The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Penybont. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate GAP Connah S Quay FC (1,945) and Penybont (1,858).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Penybont have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Penybont win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Penybont | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Penybont 0-0 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Penybont 0-1 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Penybont 1-0 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 0-1 Penybont | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Penybont sit 3rd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
- The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Penybont.
- Where and when is GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont played?
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Essity Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.