Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The Oval, Caernarfon, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Caernarfon Town (1,912) and Barry Town (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caernarfon Town have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Barry Town have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gloucester City(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Caernarfon Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Barry Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Barry Town 2-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 0-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Barry Town 2-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 3-1 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 5-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Caernarfon Town 3-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Barry Town score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| Barry Town | 1.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caernarfon Town sit 6th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Barry Town sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town?
- The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town played?
- Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The Oval, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.