Gateshead vs Southend: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Gateshead International Stadium, Gateshead, Tyne and Wear
The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Gateshead. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gateshead vs Southend?
Southend starts as the favourite with a 239-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gateshead have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Southend have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 0-3 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest U21(home) | 1-1 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aveley(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gateshead win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Southend win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Southend 1-1 Gateshead | National League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Gateshead 0-3 Southend | National League |
| May 5, 2025 | Gateshead 0-0 Southend | National League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Southend 1-3 Gateshead | National League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Southend 0-1 Gateshead | National League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Gateshead 1-1 Southend | National League |
Last archived meeting: Southend vs Gateshead on Mar 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gateshead score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Southend score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Southend | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gateshead sit 17th in National League (3 points from 3 matches) and Southend sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 17 | Gateshead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gateshead vs Southend?
- The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Gateshead.
- Where and when is Gateshead vs Southend played?
- Gateshead vs Southend is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Gateshead International Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.