GEL vs Audax São Mateus: prediction and stats
Capixaba BRegular Season - 10Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Audax São Mateus the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for GEL. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GEL vs Audax São Mateus?
Audax São Mateus starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,596 vs 1,467).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GEL have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Audax São Mateus have 5, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Doze(away) | 2-1 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CTE Colatina(home) | 6-0 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Audax São Mateus(away) | 0-0 | Capixaba B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Linhares(home) | 0-4 | Capixaba B |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Doze(home) | 0-0 | Capixaba B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doze(home) | 4-0 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 18, 2026 | CTE Colatina(away) | 5-0 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Linhares(home) | 1-0 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | GEL(home) | 0-0 | Capixaba B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Doze(away) | 2-3 | Capixaba B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 GEL win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Audax São Mateus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Audax São Mateus 0-0 GEL | Capixaba B |
Last archived meeting: Audax São Mateus vs GEL on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GEL score 0.9 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Audax São Mateus score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEL | 0.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Audax São Mateus | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 2/14 | 6/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GEL sit 7th in Capixaba B (9 points from 6 matches) and Audax São Mateus sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | GEL | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GEL vs Audax São Mateus?
- The Footlab model makes Audax São Mateus the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for GEL.
- Where and when is GEL vs Audax São Mateus played?
- GEL vs Audax São Mateus is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Capixaba B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.