Sport Brasil ES vs Estrela do Norte: prediction and stats
Capixaba BRegular Season - 10Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Virgílio Grassi, Rio Bananal, Espírito Santo
The Footlab model makes Estrela do Norte the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sport Brasil ES. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sport Brasil ES vs Estrela do Norte?
Estrela do Norte starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,663 vs 1,518).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sport Brasil ES have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Estrela do Norte have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rive(away) | 0-2 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tupy(away) | 0-1 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pinheiros(home) | 4-1 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Estrela do Norte(away) | 0-2 | Capixaba B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rive(home) | 0-1 | Capixaba B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tupy(home) | 4-0 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pinheiros(away) | 5-0 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rive(home) | 1-1 | Capixaba B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sport Brasil ES(home) | 2-0 | Capixaba B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tupy(away) | 1-0 | Capixaba B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Sport Brasil ES win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Estrela do Norte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Estrela do Norte 2-0 Sport Brasil ES | Capixaba B |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Estrela do Norte 4-0 Sport Brasil ES | Capixaba B |
Last archived meeting: Estrela do Norte vs Sport Brasil ES on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sport Brasil ES score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela do Norte score 2.3 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Brasil ES | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Estrela do Norte | 2.3 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sport Brasil ES sit 8th in Capixaba B (9 points from 7 matches) and Estrela do Norte sit 1st (19 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sport Brasil ES vs Estrela do Norte?
- The Footlab model makes Estrela do Norte the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sport Brasil ES.
- Where and when is Sport Brasil ES vs Estrela do Norte played?
- Sport Brasil ES vs Estrela do Norte is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Virgílio Grassi, in the Capixaba B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.