Ghaz Al Shamal vs Karbala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ghaz Al Shamal the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Karbala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ghaz Al Shamal vs Karbala?
Ghaz Al Shamal starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,460 vs 1,337).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Ghaz Al Shamal have 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Karbala have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Baghdad(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Al Hudod(home) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Naft(home) | 2-4 | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ghaz Al Shamal score 0.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 3; Karbala score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0 | 2/3 | 0/3 |
| Karbala | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ghaz Al Shamal sit 15th in Iraqi League (2 points from 3 matches) and Karbala sit 14th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Karbala | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Karbala?
- The Footlab model makes Ghaz Al Shamal the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Karbala.
- Where and when is Ghaz Al Shamal vs Karbala played?
- Ghaz Al Shamal vs Karbala is played on May 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.