Mosul vs Al Karkh: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Mosul the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Al Karkh. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosul vs Al Karkh?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Mosul (1,513) and Al Karkh (1,532).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosul have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Al Karkh have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Newroz(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 15, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Erbil(home) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Naft(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Al Talaba(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Shorta(home) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mosul win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Al Karkh win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Mosul 1-2 Al Karkh | Iraqi League |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Al Karkh 2-2 Mosul | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mosul score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Al Karkh score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosul | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 13/15 | 8/15 |
| Al Karkh | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosul sit 4th in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Al Karkh sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mosul | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 | Al Karkh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosul vs Al Karkh?
- The Footlab model makes Mosul the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Al Karkh.
- Where and when is Mosul vs Al Karkh played?
- Mosul vs Al Karkh is played on May 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.