Gillingham vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 31Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gillingham vs Rochdale?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gillingham have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Rochdale have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Gillingham win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Rochdale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | Rochdale 0-2 Gillingham | League Two |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Gillingham 1-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jan 23, 2021 | Gillingham 2-2 Rochdale | League One |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Rochdale 1-4 Gillingham | League One |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Rochdale 2-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Dec 29, 2019 | Gillingham 1-0 Rochdale | League One |
Last archived meeting: Rochdale vs Gillingham on Feb 18, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gillingham sit 21st in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Rochdale sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gillingham vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Gillingham vs Rochdale played?
- Gillingham vs Rochdale is played on February 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Priestfield Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.